Thoughts on Best Picture

Every once in a while, a film is released to such fanfare and hype that most would consider it illogical to vote for anything but it in the Oscar race. But with both Flags of our Fathers and Dreamgirls, the two odds on favorites for Best Picture runs at the year's start, falling by the wayside, this year's race is wide open with any of the five nominees having a valid shot at taking home the prized gold statue. If last year proved anything, being the odds on favorite means nothing as the powerhouse campaign for Brokeback Mountain ultimately came up short, losing to the vastly inferior but safer, Crash. With the Oscars less than three weeks away, many both inside and outside of the industry are wondering what to make of this year's race.

If one had to guess, I would wager that most would side with The Departed as the favorite to win the big award for a number of reasons. First and foremost, is the prestige behind and in front of the camera. Of the nominated films, no other has the star power in the big positions to fight with Martin Scorsese's Boston crime drama. With arguably three of the most respected stars in the business, Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon and Jack Nicholson, all turning in fine performances, the film has definite acting pedigree. Scorsese has long been thought of as the greatest director never to win an Oscar and commands respect in both the New York and Los Angeles film circles, something very few filmmakers can say. The film has an epic scope, something the Academy can never get enough of, and combines adult subject matter with a darkly humorous and thoughtful screenplay by William Monahan. However, what The Departed does not have is the necessary recognitions from the other major awards. It was largely ignored at the Golden Globes, with only Scorsese winning Best Director, and film critics circles around the country haven't awarded it with any great frequency. Besides for the obvious Boston Critics win, it doesn't have the support of the rest of the country as much as a full out favorite should.

Much like The Departed, Little Miss Sunshine doesn't have the support of many critics but has become a dark horse in the race after its recent big wins at the Producers Guild of America Awards as well as at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Prior to these upsets, Little Miss Sunshine looked like a long shot and at this point, still may but it has shown tremendous support from two huge portions of Hollywood. It has been widely adored by audiences (I, personally, found it disappointing) and has been picking up some steam. Like Crash last year, it was released in the summer but due to a phenomenal campaign, has clawed its way into the Oscar race, most likely knocking off Dreamgirls in the process. It has the quirky independent spirit rarely found in a Best Picture nominee, a quality that may end up helping it tremendously. Its underdog mentality, both in its narrative and campaign, has been enduring to many and it could end up pushing the film over the top.

Babel, the third nominated film, is something of a question mark. To many critics, it was manipulative and over the top and as a result, received the worst reviews of Inarritu's three interlocking films, Amorres Perros, 21 Grams and Babel. However, it also has received the most praise from the awards circuit. It was the most nominated film at the Golden Globes and pulled down an impressive 7 nominations, most in big categories, at the Oscars and judging from the Outsider's connections on the West Coast, is the buzz film of the moment, similar to what Crash was in the weeks leading up to its big win. Despite its number of nominations at the Globes, it only won once, albeit in the only category that really matters: Best Drama. If history tells us anything, that win is largely inconsequential, as AMPAS (Academy of Motion Picture, Arts and Sciences) often votes differently than the Hollywood Foreign Press. Yet, the momentum that the win was able to create is certainly making waves. One must also wonder if the Academy voters have grown tired of the interlocking narrative style that Babel uses after awarding Crash, which employs a similar structure, its top award last year. The Academy rarely votes for two similar films in sequential years. Look at 1998's awards with Titanic's big wins. 1999's ceremony was headlined by Shakespeare in Love's surprise win over the heavily favored epic war film Saving Private Ryan. After The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King won big in 2005, the Academy shifted to Crash in 2006, a much smaller film. Will 2007 see the Academy bucking the trend and giving their top award to two films that use similar devices two years in a row? To this writer, its highly questionable.

The fourth film to receive a nomination was The Queen, Stephen Frears' examination of the days following the death of Princess Diana. To this writer, The Queen, despite its critical adoration, is the least likely to take home the big prize on awards night. It's cast and crew was almost entirely British and its English roots show throughout the whole film. To many critics, this means nothing. To an Academy that has never awarded a foreign film its Best Picture, even a film made across the pond seems different. Despite Helen Mirren's amazing performance, which should and will win Best Actress, the film has almost no awards buzz. Its nomination wasn't the least bit surprising and its inevitable loss won't surprise many either. Disappoint sure, but surprise no. The film's strengths lie in its ability to take such a monumental event and still keep the narrative intensely personal and intimate. It never struggles with larger political issues but just the one week following the death of an ex-princess. Its lack of an epic scope could end up hurting its chances and even though Little Miss Sunshine is a small film like The Queen, LMS makes up for its intimacy with oddball dark humor and an indie spirit. The Queen's humor is dry and takes getting used to and feels like a period piece would, it’s just set 10 years ago as opposed to 200.

The fifth and final film, Letters from Iwo Jima, was probably the most surprising. Initially scheduled for release in Feb. of 2007 but rushed ahead once Flags of our Fathers, its companion piece, began to flounder, Iwo Jima was immediately lauded en masse. While the Academy has never awarded a foreign film its Best Picture, Eastwood's complex look at the pivotal battle in the Pacific could be the one to break ground. Eastwood, who has become an Academy favorite over the past 5 years, gives this film immediate recognition in America and I wouldn't be surprised if a few voters aren't swayed by the amazing combined accomplishment that is Flags of our Fathers/Letters from Iwo Jima. In fact, Flags could weigh heavily on voter's minds and could influence a few. Ken Watanabe, who was nominated for The Last Samurai, contributes a phenomenal performance and is becoming a recognizable face for American voters. Eastwood's pedigree can not be under estimated, and while I don’t believe he will win Best Director (which Scorsese will finally take home), he could make a serious run at Best Picture.